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Prediction for CME (2016-10-09T02:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-10-09T02:00Z
CME Note: Halo CME seen in C2 at 10-09T02:36Z and C3 at 10-09T06:30Z. Visible to the NW as seen by STA at 10-08T21:09Z. Source is unclear.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-10-12T21:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-10-13T00:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-10-09T11:00Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 363 km/s
Longitude (deg): 2 deg East
Latitude (deg): 9 deg North
Half-angular width (deg): 31 deg

Notes: This CME may be too slow to be detectable at Earth as close to ambient solar wind speed, but is due to arrive late on 12th or early 13th. It seems to be associated with a filament eruption in the NE quadrant late on the 8th. Stereo A now seems to be in a position where a 3D view is possible once more. 
Space weather advisor: Duty MOSWC forecaster.

Lead Time: 58.35 hour(s)
Difference: -2.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2016-10-10T11:00Z

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